“You know you are getting old when everything hurts, and what doesn’t hurt doesn’t work.” — Hy Gardner
A few weeks ago, we posted a blog about the need for increased maintenance, testing, and inspection on equipment that has aged past the constant failure rate period of the bathtub curve into the wear-out period of the bathtub curve. We argued that this is more important now than ever because “the chemical industry is getting old and it’s showing.”
The question is, does the data support this assertion? Are the chemical and refining industries really showing their age, or have they somehow achieved eternal youth?
Aging Industries
On March 26, 2026, Bob Campbell reported that there were 131 refineries operating in the U.S. with an average age over 50 years. In a separate report, IndustrySelect suggested that the average age of chemical facilities in the U.S. is 46 years.
If aging is a meaningful contributor to significant incidents at refineries and chemical plants in the U.S., then the age of facilities where incidents occurred should be greater than the age of facilities in those industries in general.
To get at the age of facilities where significant incidents occurred, we did a deep dive into the publicly available data posted by the Chemical Safety Board (CSB) of accidental release reporting rule data.
CSB’s Accidental Release Reporting Rule Data
Beginning on March 23, 2020, the CSB began requiring “the owner or operator of a stationary source to report an accidental release resulting in a fatality, serious injury, or substantial property damage. “Substantial property damage” is defined as “property damage at or outside the stationary source estimated to be equal to or greater than $1,000,000.” A “serious injury” is defined as an injury resulting in “death or in-patient hospitalization.”
The CSB periodically updates and posts the data reported to them by stationary sources. The first incident was at the Valero Refinery in Meraux, Louisiana on April 10, 2020. The most recent update from the CSB, posted on June 1, 2026, concludes with incident 651, a natural gas explosion at an apartment building in Dallas, Texas that killed three.
The posted data includes the date of the incident, the name of the involved company, the city and state where the incident occurred, and whether there were fatalities, serious injuries, or substantial property damage.
With that information, we search public records to learn more about the nature of the incidents, the industries in which the incidents occurred, and the age of the facility when the incident occurred.
Refining
Of the 131 refineries currently active in the U.S., 66 of them appeared on the June 1, 2026, edition of the CSB list. Altogether, there are 132 refinery incidents on the CSB list. Obviously, some refineries were the site of more than one incident, with Flint Hills Resources refinery in Rosemount, Minnesota appearing on the list seven times.
The average age of a refinery when an reportable incident occurred was 89 years, considerably more than the average age of refineries of 50 years. Aging clearing has an impact on likelihood of an reportable incident at a refinery.
Chemical Plants
There are 651 incidents on the June 1, 2026, edition of the list. Of those, 148 occurred at stationary sources that can be characterized as chemical plants. A total of 76 different companies operated these chemical plants. Dow appeared on the list 12 times, with eight separate plants. One plant, the CF Industries nitrogen complex in Donaldsonville, Louisiana, appeared on the list six times.
On average, the age of a chemical facility when a reportable incident occurred was 59 years, compared to the average age of chemical facilities in general of 46 years. This is noticeably greater, but the difference is not as significant as with refineries.
Yes, Aging Plants Are Significantly More Likely to Suffer Failures
The longer a chemical or refining facility operates, the more likely it is to suffer a reportable incident involving a fatality, serious injury, or substantial property damage. The specific units within the facility may not be that old, but older facilities pose extra demands on the maintenance and operating staff. Those demands, no doubt, contribute to the increased likelihood of reportable incidents.
Expect the Rate of Incidents to Increase as Our Industries Age
While it may seem obvious that older facilities are more likely to suffer failures, and conversely, that newer facilities are less likely to suffer failures, it means that those of us charged with operating older facilities must be that much more vigilant as our industries age.
It also means that regulators are doing no favors by making it more difficult to build new facilities. As long as they do, we will continue to keep existing facilities running. As a result, we can expect the rate of incidents to increase.
